In many ways, it feels like the end of the road in the Roaring Fork Valley real estate market. The appreciation was dramatic over the last few years, for reasons that we now understand: cheap, easy and abundant money, rush to small towns after Covid etc… Prices in real estate followed, and in our instance surpassed inflation. But now that nobody is worrying about Covid, and that loans are incredibly expensive and hard to get, is it still reasonable to expect any appreciation? Well, things often play out differently than what we might think at first glance. Let’s dive into the latest CAR numbers and see what the future might have in store for each town in our valley.

As we’ve seen in previous blogs, the lack of inventory is still the number one contributor to the current appreciation. With little to no options, any decent house on the market is actually selling quickly and for a lot of money. There will always be a handful of buyers to scoop up the handful of listings that are available, even if the price is high. The other factor to explain the continuous appreciation in today’s environment is the lack of alternatives. Everybody still needs a roof over their head. Rents are extremely high. It’s still a better option to buy and own real estate. People do have a budget they need to stay within though... How do they make it work? How do they make their decisions? How are these decisions impacting the market dynamics?

There are many adjusting variables to stay within your budget. Condo vs houses, size, finishes etc… But in our area more than anywhere else, buyers stay within their budget by buying into the next town down valley. For the most part, buyers will look into Snowmass if they can’t afford Aspen, Basalt, if they can’t afford Snowmass, Carbondale if they can’t afford Basalt, etc all the way to Rifle and Battlement Mesa. That being said, some towns have assets of their own, and different types of real estate. For example, Snowmass Village has a lot of ski in ski out condos. Silt has farmettes on a couple of acres. Carbondale has golf communities. So some people will want to be in Glenwood over Carbondale, they don’t just have to. But in general, for a given type of home, people report their interest to the next town over/down valley if they can’t afford a specific location.

Knowing that, it’s quite enlightening to compare the median sales price in each town with the next town over. If the gap is big, we can consider that the down valley town still has room to grow before it’s not considered a worthwhile alternative anymore. In the graph and table below, you will find the median price points through 2023 and the gap to the next town over.

Here is the question for a buyer: if I’d rather be in Basalt, is it worth looking into Carbondale for a $63,000 difference? If I’d rather be in Carbondale, but prices are at the very top of my price range, should I be looking at Glenwood for a $996,000 difference? Could I get much more house if I go to Glenwood with the same budget?

Following this logic, the towns that seem to have the most room to grow are Snowmass Village, Basalt, Glenwood and New Castle. For a buyer looking to buy in Carbondale, there is a huge incentive to look into Glenwood (less then half the price). Same goes for New Castle: the $259,000 difference in median price represents a difference of 40% of the median price in New Castle.

Carbondale and Missouri Heights have pretty much caught up with Basalt, which doesn’t seem to leave a ton of room to grow for these areas.

Please find the break down per town below.